AGP Executive Report

Somalia Politics: Somalia’s ruling Justice and Solidarity Party (JSP) won a decisive majority in Galmudug’s first one-person, one-vote local council elections, taking 63 of 189 seats and positioning the party strongly ahead of the region’s presidential race. Security & Al-Shabaab: In central Hiran, Al-Shabaab claimed it has retaken Teedaan, a key transport hub near Beledweyne, after clashes that forced allied forces to withdraw; the Somali government has not confirmed the details. Regional Diplomacy: Somalia’s Defence Minister Ahmed Moallim Fiqi met China’s ambassador in Mogadishu to discuss defence cooperation, the fight against Al-Shabaab, and the future of AUSSOM as troop contributors push for an extension. Humanitarian & Climate: FAO says Somalia is preparing anticipatory actions for expected El Niño-linked heavy rains and flooding, including debris clearance and forecast-based cash support for flood-prone communities along the Shabelle and Juba river basins. Kenya-Somalia Tensions: Somalia’s Second Deputy PM Jibril Abdirashid Haji says he has surrendered his Kenyan passport in Mogadishu, calling it a voluntary administrative step to ensure transparency. US Immigration: In the US, federal courts again blocked efforts to end Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Somalis, while US lawmakers escalated impeachment threats against the judge involved.

Al-Shabaab Insurgency: Al-Shabaab claims it has taken control of Teedaan in Somalia’s Hiran region after clashes with Somali forces and allied clan militias, with the group alleging dozens of soldiers killed; officials have not confirmed details, but the town is described as a key transport and logistics hub about 60km from Beledweyne. Diplomatic Tensions: Somalia’s Deputy Prime Minister Jibril Abdirashid Haji says he has voluntarily surrendered his Kenyan passport and related documents to Mogadishu’s Kenyan embassy, calling it an administrative step to boost transparency after his earlier deportation from Nairobi. Security Cooperation: Puntland and the U.S. signed an agreement to expand the American base in Bosaso, focusing on counterterrorism and maritime security in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Regional Politics: Somalia’s House of the People is moving toward electing a new speaker after the acting speaker named a committee to run the process. Climate Risk: FAO says Somalia is preparing for likely heavy Deyr rains as El Niño conditions build, with flood mitigation and early support planned for river floodplains.

AUSSOM Funding Pressure: African leaders meeting in Kampala urged more reliable financing to keep the AU mission in Somalia running as the U.S. hesitates and Europe faces strain, with Uganda’s Museveni insisting Somalia won’t be abandoned. U.S. Conditional Support: AFRICOM chief Gen. Dagvin Anderson warned Washington’s backing for Somalia’s fight against Al-Shabaab depends on Mogadishu ending political infighting, saying the Danab force is ready but sustaining it is now Somalia’s job. Red Sea Security Push: Saudi Arabia announced a new maritime defense alliance with Egypt, Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea and Somalia to protect Red Sea and Gulf of Aden shipping amid Houthi threats. Mogadishu Politics: Somalia’s president warned against exporting Middle East conflicts to the Horn, while the opposition rejected claims it sought a return to transitional rule and a minister resigned to run for Speaker. Regional Engagement: Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre visited Las Anod for Northeastern State’s anniversary, and Somalia received credentials of Algeria’s new ambassador. Trade Reform: Somalia urged faster customs and border reforms to make EAC and AfCFTA membership pay off.

Somalia–Israel Tensions: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud told Parliament Mogadishu will not let Middle East conflicts spill into the Horn, accusing Israel of interfering in Somalia’s internal affairs and fueling instability around the Red Sea. AUSSOM Politics: At an AU troop-contributing summit in Uganda, Mohamud pushed back on communique wording calling for dialogue with the opposition; the final text softened the language. US Security Pressure: AFRICOM chief Gen. Dagvin Anderson said continued US engagement depends on Somalia ending political infighting, while also denying any US plan to build a military base in Somaliland. Somalia–Puntland US Deal: In Bosaso, President Deni met US special operations leadership and signed an agreement to expand counterterrorism and maritime security cooperation, including intelligence sharing. Elections & Women’s Quota: Somalia’s Ministry of Family urged full implementation of the 30% women’s quota in Galmudug elections. Health & Aid Strain: UNHCR-linked reporting says newborn deaths across vulnerable communities in sub-Saharan Africa have surged as aid cuts bite, raising alarm for Somalia’s most at-risk families. Breastfeeding Policy: Somalia, with UNICEF and WHO, launched national regulations to control formula marketing and protect breastfeeding.

Parliament & Elections: Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud opened the eighth session of the Federal Parliament, urging lawmakers to push security gains against al-Shabaab and renew the push for direct elections. Trade & Integration: Mohamud signed legislation to join the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), clearing the way for Somalia to deposit its ratification with the AU. Red Sea Security: Saudi Arabia unveiled a 14-nation maritime defence coalition to protect Red Sea shipping through Bab el-Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden, with Somalia among the members. Health Policy: Somalia, with UNICEF and WHO, launched national Breast-milk Substitutes regulations to curb risky formula marketing during World Breastfeeding Week. Diplomatic Tensions: Mohamud ordered ministers and senior officials holding Kenyan passports or IDs to surrender them after entry denials in Nairobi. US Immigration Court Fight: A US federal judge again blocked the Trump administration from ending Temporary Protected Status for Somalis, extending protections while legal challenges proceed. Security Pressure: AFRICOM’s chief told Mogadishu US support is conditional on Somalia taking more responsibility and reducing political infighting.

Parliament & Reform: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud opened Somalia’s 8th Federal Parliament session, urging lawmakers to push security gains against al-Shabaab and advance democratic reforms and key legislation. Regional Security Pressure: U.S. AFRICOM chief Gen. Dagvin Anderson told Mogadishu Washington’s support is conditional on political unity and Somali-led security, warning internal infighting could end engagement. AUSSOM Funding Fight: Troop-contributing countries meeting in Kampala urged the UN Security Council to extend AUSSOM backing for 18–24 months to avoid a security vacuum and protect Somalia’s stabilization path. Red Sea Maritime Shift: Somalia signed onto a Saudi-led maritime defense alliance meant to secure the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb and Gulf of Aden amid Houthi threats, with Somalia named among the 14 founding states. Drone Attack Condemnation: Somalia condemned a drone strike targeting Egypt’s Damietta Port, warning it threatens critical infrastructure and freedom of navigation. Puntland Anniversary: Puntland marked 28 years in Garowe with a major parade and public celebrations, spotlighting its security and governance priorities. Piracy Link to Wider War: A commentary piece argues Iran-linked threat networks have helped keep Somali piracy active, tying Gulf of Aden attacks to broader regional militant logistics. Humanitarian Weather Watch: UN warnings of strong El Niño raise fears of heavier rains and flooding across the Horn, including Somalia’s region.

Maritime Security: Saudi Arabia has launched a 14-nation maritime defense coalition to protect Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb and Gulf of Aden shipping, with Somalia named among the founding signatories; the alliance is framed as defensive and includes plans for joint operations and intelligence-sharing as Houthis threaten navigation. Piracy Crisis: Somali pirates are still holding four vessels and 67 crewmembers after months of captivity, while DGMA confirms at least 16 Indian seafarers remain hostage following hijackings around the Gulf of Aden and Horn of Africa. Somalia Peace Mission: AU leaders meeting in Kampala are pushing to extend AUSSOM despite looming funding and logistics gaps as the UN’s support framework nears expiry, stressing that security gains must be matched by political unity. Politics & Accountability: At the AUSSOM summit, officials warned Somalia’s security transition hinges on a political agreement, while in the U.S. a federal judge again blocked Trump’s move to end Temporary Protected Status for Somalis. Human Stories: Renowned Somali singer and composer Ahmed Ali Igaal has died in the United States.

Trade & Integration: Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has signed the AfCFTA law, clearing the final domestic step so Mogadishu can deposit its ratification with the AU and join Africa’s single market. Security & Politics: AU troop-contributing defence ministers meeting in Kampala warned Somalia’s unresolved political disputes are the biggest barrier to lasting peace, saying funding and military action alone won’t fix the crisis. Regional Diplomacy: Kenya’s DP Kithure Kindiki arrived in Entebbe to represent President William Ruto at the AUSSOM summit, as leaders push for a sustainable plan to avoid a security vacuum. Red Sea Stakes: Saudi Arabia announced a 14-nation maritime defence alliance to protect Bab al-Mandeb, the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, with Somalia listed among founding supporters. Somalia-U.S. Focus: AFRICOM’s commander met President Mohamud, with sources saying Washington wants a political deal first and will tie future support to results. Local Governance: Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni warned against clan militias forming inside the state, calling them linked to political actors. Culture: Somali music legend Ahmed Ali Cigaal died in the United States, remembered for decades shaping theatre-linked Somali music.

Maritime Security: Saudi Arabia has launched a Saudi-led multinational maritime defense coalition, with 14 founding backers including Somalia, to protect shipping lanes through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden as Houthi attacks and wider US-Iran tensions threaten trade. Regional Diplomacy: The alliance was agreed after a Riyadh meeting of chiefs of staff from 43 countries plus the EU, with Saudi Arabia set as founding leader and permanent headquarters while members say participation remains sovereign and defensive. Humanitarian Crisis: In Somalia, Save the Children reports severe hunger is worsening in Baidoa, where admissions for the deadliest malnutrition nearly tripled in six months, driven by poor rainfall, high food prices, aid cuts and conflict. Somalia Peace Mission: The AU is being pushed to rethink AUSSOM after US funding cuts, raising questions about how Somalia’s security transition will be sustained. Climate Risk: Somalia urged African partners to prepare for the 2026 Super El Niño, calling for better early warnings, anticipatory action funding and climate-resilient infrastructure.

AUSSOM Funding Crunch: Somalia’s security transition is under strain as donor fatigue grows and UN logistical support is set to end by December 2026, with leaders meeting in Kampala to plan what comes next for the AU mission. U.S.-Somalia Security Talks: In Mogadishu, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud met AFRICOM chief Gen. Dagvin R.M. Anderson to deepen counterterrorism cooperation and defense coordination as partners review future support. AU Coordination in Addis Ababa: Somalia’s foreign minister held talks with the AU Commission chair on peace and security priorities and AUSSOM/UN support developments. Somalia’s Security Transition Faces Challenges as Donor Fatigue Grows: The Kampala summit is framed as a make-or-break moment, with commanders already reporting reduced effectiveness from UN support cuts. Red Sea Coalition Push: Saudi Arabia is seeking a 50-nation coalition to protect Red Sea shipping from Houthi threats, with Somalia reported among those invited. Regional Flashpoint in Galkayo: Puntland troops surrounded a camp in Galkayo tied to forces aligned with Mogadishu, raising fears of renewed clashes in the border-split town. Somaliland Travel Advisory Fight: U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz urged a Somaliland-specific travel advisory, arguing the current Somalia warning doesn’t match conditions on the ground.

Severe Hunger in Somalia: Save the Children reports a sharp rise in deadly malnutrition cases in Baidoa, with severe acute malnutrition admissions nearly tripling in six months, driven by poor rains, harvest losses, aid cuts, and high food prices. AUSSOM Funding Pressure: AUSSOM troop and police-contributing countries met in Kampala to prevent the mission from sliding into crisis after the US threatened to end support for UN logistics beyond December, raising fears for Somalia’s security transition. Somalia’s Finances Under Strain: Mogadishu’s finance minister warned that $450–600m in income is disappearing and urged banks to shift lending toward production and jobs as foreign grant inflows decline. Mogadishu Port Push: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud inspected the Port of Mogadishu and urged faster modernization to expand capacity and boost trade. Regional Security Shock: In Mandera, Kenya, five security officers were killed in an al-Shabaab ambush near the Somalia border, underscoring ongoing cross-border threats.

Security & Border Tensions: Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud inspected the Port of Mogadishu, urging faster modernization as Somalia faces mounting economic pressure. Regional Security: In Kenya’s Mandera near the Somalia border, suspected al-Shabaab ambushed a patrol, killing five officers after an IED blast and gunfire; local leaders warn insecurity is tied to militant activity across the frontier. Federal vs Regional Friction: Tensions are rising in Galkayo as Puntland forces surround a PSF camp, with fears of a wider clash between Puntland and Galmudug-backed forces. AUSSOM Funding Shake-up: The AU is being pushed to rethink AUSSOM after US funding ends beyond December, shifting toward a longer-term political mission. Somalia Politics: The Somali Future Council says troop-contributing states should address Somalia’s legitimacy crisis by backing an inclusive transitional council and ensuring the army stays neutral. Finance & Climate: Somalia’s National Climate Fund and Somali Bankers Association concluded a climate finance workshop to help banks access global climate funding. US-Somalia Talks: Mohamud met US Congressman Darin LaHood on security, counter-terrorism, and investment ties.

Border Security: Five Kenyan security officers were killed in Mandera after a patrol vehicle was hit by an IED near the Somalia border, with police launching an operation to track the attackers believed to have fled toward Somalia. Health Aid: Qatar Charity announced a 2026–2027 Somalia health plan with 48 projects across nine programmes, targeting nearly 50,000 people, including malnutrition treatment, blindness services, paediatric heart surgeries, chronic disease care, and dialysis centre rehabilitation. Diplomacy: Somalia and Jordan discussed ways to deepen political and diplomatic coordination to address regional challenges and support crisis resolution through dialogue. Regional Politics: Somalia and Kenya held talks in Addis Ababa after Somalia summoned Kenya’s ambassador over the reported deportation/entry denial of a senior Somali state minister, with both sides agreeing to strengthen consular coordination and people-to-people mobility. AUSSOM Focus: Uganda will host a 2026 AU summit of troop-contributing countries to AUSSOM from 29–31 July to review security and stabilisation plans. Humanitarian/Red Sea: Somalia condemned drone attacks targeting Saudi Arabia, stressing solidarity and the importance of protecting Red Sea navigation.

AU & AUSSOM: Uganda will host the 2026 AU summit of troop-contributing countries for AUSSOM in Kampala (29–31 July), as AU leaders push Somalia’s security transition. Diplomacy & Elections: US and UK-backed talks aim to bring Somalia’s term-ended president and opposition together to break the election deadlock, while partners warn leaders to reach a political deal before end of August. Federal vs Puntland Tensions: Galkayo is tense as Mogadishu and Puntland inch toward armed conflict, and Puntland blocks a federal general’s entry—keeping the standoff focused on who controls forces inside Puntland. Regional Security: Somalia condemned drone and UAV attacks on Saudi Arabia, urging restraint and diplomacy, as Red Sea risks keep spilling into the Horn. Piracy & Shipping: Somali pirates hijacked the Tanzanian-flagged MT Asana off Yemen and piracy is resurging, with vessels reportedly held off Puntland. Kenya-Somalia Friction: Somali and Kenyan foreign ministers met after Kenya denied entry to a senior Somali minister and sent him back to Mogadishu. Humanitarian Aid: Türkiye says it delivered aid to 85 countries, including 3,000 tonnes to Somalia, as it expands disaster response worldwide.

Diplomatic Spat: Somalia summoned Kenya’s ambassador in Mogadishu after Somali state minister Abshir Bukhaari was reportedly denied entry at Nairobi’s Jomo Kenyatta International Airport and sent back over questions about a Kenyan passport, echoing a similar case involving Somalia’s deputy prime minister last month. Regional Politics: Somalia’s opposition Somali Future Council urged African AU troop-contributing countries to push for an inclusive transitional political settlement before any further AUSSOM security transition, warning constitutional mandates have expired and legitimacy remains unresolved ahead of a Kampala summit. Security & Governance: South West State wrapped a three-day cabinet retreat in Baidoa focused on governance reforms, accountability, and improving public services. Maritime Threat: Reports say Somali pirates are back, using hijacked ships as “motherships” to capture other vessels off the Horn, with multiple boats held off Puntland and ransoms demanded. Climate Risk: The AfDB warned a “super” El Niño could cost Africa $10bn–$20bn, cut GDP by 1%–2% in hard-hit countries, and trigger mass migration.

AUSSOM & Politics: Somalia’s opposition National Future Council and the Somali Future Council are urging AUSSOM troop-contributing countries to push an inclusive political settlement and a transitional authority before any further security handover, warning that expired presidential and parliamentary mandates have left Somalia in a dangerous legitimacy crisis. Diplomacy With Kenya: Mogadishu has summoned Kenya’s ambassador after State Minister Abshir Bukhaari was reportedly denied entry at Nairobi’s JKIA and deported back to Mogadishu, following a similar earlier case involving Deputy PM Jibril Abdirashid Haji—raising fears of a widening diplomatic rift. Security Updates: Somalia’s NISA says it killed 16 al-Shabab militants in Middle Shabelle and Hiiraan, including senior media-wing figures, while Somalia’s North Eastern State parliament ordered prosecutions for detainees held from the 2023 Las Anod conflict. Finance & Payments: The Central Bank of Somalia plans to expand the Somalia Instant Payment System to link commercial banks, mobile money and regional payment networks through one interoperable infrastructure. Maritime Threat: Reports say Somali pirates are using a hijacked cargo ship as a “mothership” to launch renewed raids off the Horn of Africa. Climate Risk: The AfDB warns a “super” El Niño could cost Africa $10bn–$20bn and trigger mass migration, with Somalia among the countries facing severe heat impacts.